Jackie Cahill’s bombshell

The revelation by Fianna Fáil TD Jackie Cahill that he will not be contesting the next election on health grounds has come as a bombshell for the party that now quickly has to find someone with the credentials to retain its seat in North Tipperary.

With the election expected to take place around the end of next month, Fianna Fáil will have to act swiftly to choose a candidate.

The most obvious successor would appear to be Councillor Michael Smith, son of the long serving former Roscrea Fianna Fáil TD and Cabinet minister Michael Smith.

Cllr Smith has been a consistent poll-topper in the Roscrea-Templemore area in his two decades as a councillor and is seen as a hard-working public representative.

His father attracted great support from the Fianna Fáil faithful during his long political career. A lot of that backing would still be there for Mr Smith jnr, if he decides to put his name forward at the forthcoming selection convention.

Other names being mentioned include one of the party’s Thurles councillors, Sean Ryan, a teacher by profession, and Ryan O’ Meara, from Cloughjordan, the youngest candidate to be elected to Tipperary County Council in the Local Elections back in June, and who has worked as Deputy Cahill’s parliamentary assistant for a number of years.

Another possible successor includes Cllr Kay Cahill Skehan, a sister of Deputy Cahill, who won a seat on the county council on her first attempt in June.

Yet another to reckon on is Cllr John Carroll, from Kilcoleman, the longest serving elected member of Tipperary County Council. He has vast experience as a public representative, but whether he would want such a demanding role in his mid-60s is questionable.

SADNESS

Meanwhile, the manner of Deputy Cahill’s departure on health advice has been greeted with sadness and regret.

He has served the party with distinction as a TD since 2016, winning back the seat lost by the party in North Tipperary in 2011 and retaining it ever since.

He has a deserved reputation as a hard-working, uppright  and honest TD, and indeed as a county councillor for the Thurles area from 2014 to 2016.

In a press release issued late on Monday night, Deputy Cahill said:

“After much consideration, I have decided on personal grounds following health advice not to put my name forward in the upcoming General Election.

“This is obviously a very difficult decision, and one that I have made following discussions with those closest to me.”

ELECTION FEVER

His shock announcement comes as general election fever grips North Tipperary and the rest of the country following the announcement this week by the Taoiseach Simon Harris that the current coalition will cease office before the end in the year.

For the first time since 2011, North Tipperary and South Tipperary will again be separate constituencies.

The two constituencies were joined together in 2016 to make one joint five-seat Tipperary constituency.

Its division once again into two three-seat constituencies has added a renewed sense of rivalry between the main traditional political parties and should provide entertainment for both political anoraks and voters in general in the contests set to unfold.

Pollsters, for the second time in six months since the local elections, will once again be inundated with canvassers knocking on their front doors and the sight of political posters in towns and villages.

LOWRY TO HEAD POLL?

In North Tipperary the Independent Michael Lowry looks set to head the poll, as he has done in every election since becoming an Independent in 1997.

Labour’s sitting TD Alan Kelly has promised to run “a ferocious” campaign to get himself returned to the Dáil, and his prospect of doing so appear bright.

Mr Kelly says he will be standing on his record of delivery for the town of Nenagh and surrounding areas.

“Since I was elected a TD, Nenagh has not alone become the leading town in Tipperary, it is one of the best towns in Munster and in all of Ireland,” he said.

Mr Kelly, a former senior government minister, has his sights set on a cabinet position again.

In such an influential position, he says he would again aim to deliver for North Tipperary.

His party has ambitions to win sufficient seats to make it a part of the new coalition that is likely to be formed after the election.

As the only member of his party with senior ministerial experience, Mr Kelly would seem a sure bet to sit around the front bench of the new administration if Labour get in to power.

Speaking at the launch of his election campaign, the party leader Ivana Bacik hinted strongly that he would be a senior minister if her party were in the next Government.

OTHER CANDIDATES

Fine Gael will be bidding to regain a seat in North Tipperary, and indeed in all of Tipperary, for the first time since Noel Coonan was re-elected in 2011. Its candidate this time around is the long-serving county councillor Phyll Bugler who has 20 years experience as a local politician.

Thurles native Dan Harty is facing a major challenge in his bid for election. He failed to get elected in the Local Elections last June. On top of this is the decline in support for his party in the polls as well as the current controversies in which Sinn Féin is embroiled in. These issues all combine to make his election bid an uphill struggle.

As for Fianna Fáil, Deputy Cahill’s surprise announcement has posed a serious challenge to the party retaining its seat in Tipperary.

However, there is a core of support that is sufficient to get a candidate elected - but it will all depend on crafty vote management and selection of the best candidate.