Seeking your first preference

There are no inter-county hurlers on the ballot, but if the newly designed North Tipperary/West Kilkenny constituency was a hurling team, then surely it would top the roll of honour in terms of All-Ireland titles won. Granted, Tipp aren’t going well at the moment, but the sport is imprinted in the DNA of both counties, which have been arch-rivals for decades and served up some of the finest classics in Gaelic games history.

Politics is a little like hurling - unpredictable, volatile, and at times thrillingly entertaining. That said, Tipperary’s political landscape has historically been shaped by certain constants. Independent TD Michael Lowry has topped the poll in every General Election since 1997. The 70-year-old former cabinet minister and political veteran wields significant influence in Dáil Éireann and has retained an unwavering support base in Tipperary over the years. He is likely to head the poll once again this time around, but after that things become rather more nebulous.

Labour TD Alan Kelly might have lost the party leadership to Ivana Bacik in 2022, but the former environment minister exudes the confidence of a man who is optimistic about his prospects. He commands a loyal following in the Nenagh area and is an experienced political operator with ambitions of perhaps regaining a seat at cabinet. He could come in second - creating a frantic chase for the third seat between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Fianna Fáil’s decision to run two candidates has raised eyebrows, but both men have their own respective strengths. Michael Smith is an accomplished councillor who comes from a family that is steeped in FF tradition. Ryan O’Meara is young, charismatic and ambitious - the 29-year-old worked for Jackie Cahill for four years. He knows how Leinster House operates.

Fine Gael will be hoping that Simon Harris’ surging popularity will translate through to grassroots supporters and undecideds. In Phyll Bugler they have an adroit and energetic public representative with 20 years of county council experience and a voracious work ethic. She is well capable of landing a seat.

Dark horse

A Sinn Féin victory, or the election of Independent candidate Jim Ryan, would surely rank as a major surprise. Dan Harty failed to secure a seat for SF in the local elections in May, and his party is currently languishing amid internal crises and poor poll ratings. But Sinn Féin have been underestimated before. Harty will be hoping to appeal to North Tipp’s cohort of younger voters, a demographic that is still likely to swing towards Sinn Féin.

Ryan is a dark horse. It is altogether possible that the Thurles councillor might pick up a healthy dose of transfers from Michael Lowry, which could in theory propel him to office. It would be a shock, but well within the bounds of possibility. On a national level, this General Election is likely to prove problematic for the Greens, particularly in rural constituencies like North Tipperary/West Kilkenny.

Farming community

The farming community remain deeply sceptical of the party, which they regard as ignorant to the needs of the agricultural sector. The Greens’ commitment to climate-action and environmental policy has created an inevitable clash between farmers and senior politicians. For this reason and more, Green Party candidate Iva Pocock is in an invidious position. A capable politician who has bravely put her name out there over the course of the past few elections, Pocock, in this newspaper, has already indicated her desire for the Greens to once again go into government. If she does take a seat, it would represent the mother of all upsets and completely defy all national polling trends.

National picture

With an electorate of 87,799, many of whom reside in rural areas, North Tipperary/West Kilkenny is being described by some as a bellwether constituency. The tussle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the region’s second or third seat is set to be intriguing and could well mirror the contest between FF and FG at the national level. Recent polls would suggest Fine Gael are destined to become the largest party with in-or-around 40 seats. But name recognition among new candidates could erode their final tally. Bear in mind that 18 of Fine Gael’s current batch of 32 TDs are stepping down, many of whom were established, leading figures within the party. There is every chance that FF could eclipse FG when the final ballots are counted.

Ultimately however, the most pressing question is what kind of a coalition will emerge to lead the 34th Dáil. It will surely involve Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, but in what order? More questions ensue - will be there another rotating Taoiseach arrangement, and if so, who will go first? That will of course depend on the allocation of seats. It looks certain that FG and FF will not have enough to hold a majority on their own, and a third or perhaps even a fourth coalition partner will be required. This is where Labour come in. Just a couple of weeks ago, on the front page of this paper, Alan Kelly revealed his desire to secure a position at Cabinet. He is no longer party leader, but he remains an influential figure. Surely, if the chance presents itself, Labour will seize the opportunity.

And then what about the Soc Dems? Co-founders Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy might be stepping down, but Holly Cairns is a highly principled and aspirant politician. As a pre-condition for entering government, she has already demanded that a new Department for Disability be established and issued that as a red line. Questions will be asked as to whether the Soc Dems’ inchoate policy proposals and ideas are compatible with an FG/FF alliance, but all of that can be resolved during the Programme for Government negotiations. Still, the dangers of entering coalition as the smaller party will not be lost on Cairns. History tells us that the junior coalition partner almost always suffers in the end. Ask Labour, or the Greens.

As for Sinn Féin, the malaise afflicting the party has yet to subside. Having been in a position of near unassailable strength just a year ago, their decline has been rather remarkable. Their support has withered courtesy of an uncertain position on immigration (likely to be a key campaign issue), and of course the series of recent controversies that has engulfed the party. However, if young people turn out in large enough numbers, Mary Lou McDonald may still be able to produce a solid result.

On a personal level the SF party leader has had a traumatic and difficult year. At this stage she must be feeling under pressure. But there are no real indications that there is an appetite to remove her within Sinn Féin - for the time being anyhow.

Sinn Féin last week announced that it was running a second candidate, Evan Barry, to run with Dan Harty in North Tipperary. Others in the contest are: Liam Minehan (Ind), Francis O’Toole (Aontú), Diana O’Dwyer (People Before Profit) and Peter Madden (Ind, National Alliance).