Shaping our country's future

Irish General Elections have evolved massively over the decades. We live in a multi-party parliamentary republic, now characterised by a spectrum of parties from right to left. It wasn’t always that way.

For years the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael rivalry was effectively the defining element of our democracy. Sparring between those two parties was fierce, whether it was the intense personal rivalry between Charles Haughey and Garret Fitzgerald, or the decades-long dominance of Éamon de Valera at the helm of Fianna Fáil. Other forces, such as the Labour Party (Ireland’s oldest political vehicle), did exert influence, and while Ireland was not a two-party political system akin to the US or the UK, FF and FG consistently dominated the political landscape - the enduring legacy of Civil War politics.

However, in the 1980s things began to change, radically. There had of course been coalition governments before, but the 1980s represented the dawn of a new era. Elections were frequent, too frequent for many voters’ liking, volatility was high, and while FF and FG remained the leading forces, other smaller parties began to impose themselves on Irish political life. The emergence of the Progressive Democrats (PDs), established by Des O’Malley and a coterie of others in 1985, is widely regarded as a watershed moment in the history of Irish political science. The PDs represented a dynamic new type of political party, one which was ideologically motivated and occupied a clear policy space - socially conservative but economically liberal. Through its ranks emerged politicians like Michael McDowell and Mary Harney, both of whom sought to advance Ireland into a more sophisticated democracy. Ultimately, the party fractured in 2009, two years after a disastrous General Election and amid the chaos of a financial crisis. It was a sorry end, but the Progressive Democrats’ mark on Irish politics is seen as indelible.

Modern era

The 2011 General Election was in many ways the beginning of the modern era. Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael entered government on a high, hand in hand with Eamon Gilmore’s Labour Party; Fianna Fáil and the Greens were in a state of unprecedented ruin; Sinn Féin were slowly gaining legitimacy and building up their inventory of seats.

Across Europe, the following decade would plunge the continent into turmoil. A painful economic recovery, followed by an insuperable migration crisis, sowed the seeds of unrest across various countries. Far-right parties began to emerge in major EU powerhouses. Brexit happened. In 2016 Donald Trump - who last Wednesday was elected to serve a second term as President of the United States - floated down a golden escalator and onto the political scene. He would change the course of American political history forever.

Remarkably, Ireland was resistant to these changes. As the European and American landscape shifted, Ireland’s political structure remained intact. Despite all the anti-immigration, anti-establishment currents, the far-right have failed to infiltrate Irish politics in any significant way (far-right parties and candidates do of course exist, but lack representation in Dáil Éireann, even to this day). Irish voters remained predominantly centrist, and loyal to the old guard - Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Confidence and supply deal

The 2016 General Election spelt the demise of Labour, with Fine Gael remaining the largest party and Fianna Fáil’s Mícheál Martin-led recovery beginning to take shape. There followed an unprecedented, ad-hoc arrangement between the two leading parties, in the form of a confidence and supply deal. FF and FG were moving closer.

What happened at the 2020 General Election was completely unforeseen - by the polls, the experts, and even the very party that stood at the centre of it all - Sinn Féin. Had SF decided to field enough candidates, the past five years may have looked very different. It’s still not quite clear what happened in 2020. Studies suggest that Irish voters had grown disillusioned and fed up with the status quo, particularly young people. And so they turned to the only real alternative on offer - Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin. Mary Lou herself was key to this rise. Always a forceful presence in the Dáil, she moulded her party’s campaign around her and led SF to their greatest ever share of seats. They were now a real force in the Republic, just as they had been in the North for years.

Meanwhile, the marriage between FF and FG grew ever closer. A three-way coalition government between them and the Greens was formed against the backdrop of a global pandemic, with a novel new element - a rotating Taoiseach. Mícheál Martin would take the position for two-and-a-half years (completing an astonishing ascent to the top job, considering FF’s position in 2011), before Leo Varadkar would retake the title of Taoiseach, to continue for the remainder of the government’s time in office.

Management of Covid-19

Much of the initial phase of that government’s tenure was occupied by the management of Covid-19, which changed the entire function and role of government. Leadership had never been so important. Once that crisis had dissipated, post-Covid-inflation began to bite, and then suddenly, on February 25, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, casting Europe and the world into another existential crisis.

Throughout all this time Sinn Finn was flying high in the opinion polls, and it looked almost certain that, when the time came, Mary Lou McDonald would lead the next government, thus becoming Ireland’s first female Taoiseach. But politics is volatile, and circumstances change. The polls showed that SF were beginning to slide in late 2023, and then, in the spring of 2024, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar prompted universal shock when he announced his intention to step down as head of government and leader of Fine Gael. Briefly the public wondered and the rumours flew - who would replace him? The answer soon became clear. Simon Harris became a TD at 24, a health minister at 29. Now, at 37, he was about to become Taoiseach.

The recovery in Fine Gael’s polling position in the wake of Harris assuming the leadership has been nothing short of remarkable. The public clearly like him, but they also hold Mícheál Martin in high regard, and FF remains the second-largest party. Sinn Féin’s slump, which has been further aggravated by a series of recent scandals, has damaged the party. It now sits third in the rankings, if the polls are to be believed.

Does that mean we are destined for another Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil government, in conjunction with one of the smaller parties, such as Labour, the Greens (again), or perhaps a number of independents.

Most likely. But the Irish electorate can be capricious, and election campaigns often take on a life of their own. Sinn Féin remains a strong political force. Many young people still trust the party. It would be foolish to write them off.

If indeed Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil do form the next government, it would represent a continuation of the tectonic shift which has occurred in the Irish political landscape. Ideologically it makes sense (two relatively centrist parties, with similar economic messages and policies); historically it doesn’t. One wonders what de Valera and Collins would have thought of it all.

Next article

The focus turns to Tipperary.